Perform multi-criteria impact analysis

Stage 3

LEDS Home

Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities Develop_BAU Stage 4: Prioritizing and Planning for Actions

Begin execution of implementation plans

• 1.0. Organizing the LEDS Process
• 1.1. Institutional Structure for LEDS
• 1.2. Workplan to Develop the LEDS
• 1.3. Roles and responsibilities to develop LEDS

• 2.1. Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities
• 2.2. Compile lessons learned and good practices from ongoing and previous sustainable development efforts in the country
• 2.3. Assess public and private sector capacity to support initiatives
• 2.4. Assess and improve the national GHG inventory and other economic and resource data as needed for LEDS development
• Greenhouse Gas Inventory Development Toolkit

• 3a. Analytical Decision Making - Developing BAU Scenario
• 3b. Analytical Decision Making - Assessing Opportunities
• 3b.1. Assess technical potential for sector technologies
• Renewable Energy Technical Potential Toolkit
• Building Energy Assessment Toolkit
• Power System Screening and Design Toolkit
• Land Use Assessment Toolkit
• Bioenergy Assessment Toolkit
• Transportation Assessment Toolkit
• 3b.2. Assess economic and market potential of technologies and initiatives
• Clean Energy Market Analysis Toolkit
• 3b.3. Prioritize development options
• 3c. Analytical Decision Making - Developing and Assessing Low Emissions Development Scenarios
• 3c.1. Develop low emissions growth scenarios
• 3c.2. Assess institutional framework for LEDS
• Financing Initiatives Toolkit
• Policy and Program Design Toolkit
• 3c.3. Assess in-depth contributions of selected scenarios to goals across sectors
• Land-use Scenario Analysis Toolkit
• Energy System and Scenario Analysis Toolkit
• 3c.4. Perform multi-criteria impact analysis and assess stakeholder responses
• Clean Energy Impact Assessment Tool
• Sustainable Land-use Impact Assessment Toolkit

• 4.1. Preparations for Implementation
• 4.2. Prepare comprehensive implementation plan
• 4.3. Launch implementation

• 5.1. Begin execution and monitor progress of implementation plans

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3c.4 Perform multi-criteria impact analysis and assess stakeholder responses

3c.4.1 Multi-criteria impact analysis

Stakeholders in this stage consider the feasibility, cost, and impact of potential and actions and policies that together create an institutional environment that supports the endorsed scenarios. Actions could also be evaluated for their robustness against multiple scenarios to maximize policy value against uncertainty. Stakeholders can then use macroeconomic analysis to evaluate the set of policies in aggregate, and adjust polices as necessary to better meet development goals. They should assess opportunities to build on existing programs.

Key Products

• Multi-criteria impact analysis for each proposed policy, demonstrating, e.g., economic, social, and environmental development benefits, mitigation potential, market readiness, resiliency to climate change

There a number of models that can be used to analyze the impacts or co-benefits of an aggregated set of actions. Ideally, these models can be used to perform a multi-criteria impact analysis to assess the economic, environmental and social impacts of various actions and ultimately this impact assessment will help to determine which actions will be most beneficial to the country.

Potential impacts that could be assessed include:

• Economic: employment, job creation, income, food production, rural electrification and stability in supply, terms of trade, energy intensity and cost impacts in industry, buildings, and transportation
• Social: urban and rural development, literacy, health impacts, education, innovation
• Environmental: climate resiliency; air, soil, and water quality, water use, biodiversity, GHG emissions

The following articles provide background on modeling techniques for impact assessment of sustainable development policies: Computable general equilibrium models for sustainability impact assessment: Status quo and prospects and Models for policy-making in sustainable development: The state of the art and perspectives for research.

The following toolkit from the European Commission, Joint Research Centre provides information on a number of resources to support impact assessment: Impact Assessment Tools

• The following is an example of this type of analysis for an individual country or in this case a state: Clean Energy Policy Analysis: Impact Analysis of Potential Clean Energy Policy Options for the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative.

• The following webinar describes economic impacts of renewable energy: How to Estimate the Economic Impacts from Renewable Energy

3c.4.1a Example Impact Assessment Tools

Clean Energy	Clean Energy Impact Assessment Toolkit
Land Use	Sustainable Land-use Impact Assessment Toolkit

Questions

What macroeconomic and policy-impact models would help me establish the effectiveness of my proposed policies? Energy Choice Simulator Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (MARKAL) EnergyPLAN Estimating Mitigation Potential of Agricultural Projects: an Application of the EX-Ante Carbon-balance Tool (EX-ACT) Free SEARCH Tool Global Wind Atlas Information Toolkit for post-2012 climate policies Long range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) System Modeling the Global Trade and Environmental Impacts of Biofuel Policies Modelling Agricultural Trade and Policy Impacts in Less Developed Countries NREL's Renewable Energy Project Finance Website NREL-Decision-Support Tools Demonstration National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) National and Sectoral GHG Mitigation Potential: A Comparison Across Models OpenStudio Policy Analysis Tool Policy Analysis Modeling System (PAMS) Policy Analysis System (Polysys) RETScreen Clean Energy Project Analysis Software Rebate Bus Regional Dynamics Model (REDYN) USAID Energy Toolbox Water Energy Load Profiling (WELP) Tool What macroeconomic and policy-impact models would help me establish the effectiveness of my proposed policies? [-]

3c.4.2 Stakeholder and decision-maker review

Key Products

• Analysis of likelihood for each scenario to achieve goals established in previous stage, including consumer acceptance

In this stage stakeholders and technical teams will thoroughly review the alternative deployment scenarios developed to assess which are preferred deployment scenarios in relation to goals, market acceptance and cumulative benefits and costs.

• Assess likelihood of alternative deployment scenarios achieving the desired goals, especially of market acceptance and consider projected cumulative benefits and costs of each scenario.
• The selections will be used to create a pathway that combines deployment options for each sector.

Based on the analysis of pathways across sectors stakeholders can refine the pathways to prepare for the final economy-wide pathway recommendation.

Stakeholders and technical teams will prepare a final recommendation for the economy-wide pathways to present to key decision-makers to secure endorsement.