Bioenergy End Use in the Bioenergy Scenario Model

Bioenergy End Use

The Bioenergy Scenario Model (BSM) facilitates assessment of the feasibility, economics, and logistics of end-use adoption of bioenergy technologies. End-use decisions are modeled in the context of the entire supply chain, allowing for dynamic feedback.

How Bioenergy End Use is Modeled in the Bioenergy Scenario Model

The BSM represents biofuels end use in greater detail than biopower or bioproducts because of the more complex dynamic interactions among vehicle markets, retail fuel markets, and infrastructure and logistics supplying fueling stations.

The BSM represents key interconnections from and to end use, as shown in the table, Interconnectivity Among BSM Modules. Consumer fuel purchase decisions and investment decisions for dispensing and supplying high-ethanol-content fuel blends are endogenously modeled.

Interconnectivity Among BSM Modules, Source : National Renewable Energy Laboratory
	Feedstock Supply and Logistics	Conversion	Import	Oil Industry	Downstream
From
Feedstock Supply and Logistics		Feedstock Consumption Feedstock price(Plant gate)
Conversion	Feedstock demand Cost to price atio Output capacity			Infrastructure-compatible fuel by pathway	Ethanol production Butanol production
Import					Ethanol import
Oil Industry	Gasoline point of distribution price	Module-specific price of input			Gasoline point of distribution price
Downstream		Ethanol point of production price Butanol point of production price	Ethanol price input
Vehicles					Potential E10-E15 consumption from flex fuel vehicles(FFVs) Potential E10-E15 consumption from non-FFVs Potential E-85 consumption Potential gasoline consumption

Coupling the BSM with the Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool, developed by NREL, allows incorporation of vehicle choice in simulations.

Questions the End-Use Module Can Answer

The bioenergy end-use module of the BSM answers a variety of questions. Among them:

• What conditions are most likely to facilitate the development of bioenergy supply chains to specified production levels?

• What supply-chain bottlenecks slow the growth of bioenergy products such as high-blend ethanol?

• What opportunities exist to coordinate development across the supply chain?

• How effective are particular strategies for growth?

A Sampling of Bioenergy Scenario Model End-Use Results

A few biofuel end-use analysis results are shown to illustrate the capability.

BSM simulation results were used to explore potential effects of a transition to E15: increased cellulosic ethanol production, increased near-term biofuel production (including starch ethanol), and decreased competition between cellulosic and starch ethanol for the ethanol market.

Transition to E15, Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

The BSM was used to analyze a transition away from liquid-fuel light duty vehicles that affects both the starch-ethanol and cellulosic ethanol industries.

Transition to Non-Liquid Fuels, Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory