Feedstock Supply & Logistics in the Biomass Scenario Model
The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) supports construction of bioenergy scenarios based on detailed representations of feedstock availability, land use, and markets.
The BSM models feedstock supply and logistics, in part, by classifying and allocating land. It classifies land by product and allocates land according to a pricing logic determined by time and geography. The prices are responsive to competition between energy crops and conventional crops and to the demand for biofuel feedstocks.
For example, the BSM includes the 10 U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Farm Production Regions. The model divides each region into three categories: cropland used for crops, Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) land, and cropland used for pasture.
Within each land base, land is allocated among different uses based on expected relative per-acre grower payment accruing to producers from the various products. Land allocation within the module is region specific, reflecting the production economics of different crops in different regions.
The BSM typically treats these land bases as static quantities over the course of a simulation. However, the BSM structure supports scenarios that cause land to move from one category to another.
The logic surrounding pricing for the various commodity crops, cellulosic products, and hay in the BSM is shown in the Causal Loop Diagram. The logic is central to a feedback mechanism that uses land allocation to equilibrate production and consumption across all product categories in the BSM.
Questions the Feedstock Modules Can Answer
The feedstock supply and logistics modules of the BSM answers a variety of questions. Among them:
• What impact do potential feedstock-conversion coupling options have on the biofuel industry?
• What are the potential impacts of extreme weather, climate change, and feedstock exports on feedstock supply and the biofuel industry?
• What are the effects of different land bases and subsidy schemes on the development of the biofuels industry, especially conservation reserve program land?
• What is the impact of feedstock prices on the cellulosic ethanol industry supply chain?
Sample feedstock models run on the BSM have concluded: