Biomass Scenario Model

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Logo: Biomass Scenario Model (BSM)
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed system dynamics model, the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM), represents the primary system effects and dependencies in the biomass-to-bioenergy supply chain and provides a framework for developing scenarios and conducting bioenergy policy analysis.



Evolution of Supply Chain for Bioenergy
The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic bioenergy supply chain that explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and their potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain: the BSM tracks the deployment of bioenergy given technological development and the reaction of the investment community to those technologies in the context of land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand for bioenergy, and government policies over time. It has a strong emphasis on the behavior and decision making of various agents and resolves 10 geographic regions domestically. The BSM is currently used to develop insights into the bioenergy industry growth and market penetration, particularly with respect to policies and incentives (volumetric, capital, operating subsidies; carbon caps/taxes; R&D investment; loan guarantees; tax credits) applicable to each supply-chain element. It is suitable for coupling to vehicle-choice, agricultural, oil-industry, and general economic models.


Questions the BSM Can Help Answer

  1. What points of leverage exist for accelerating the adoption of bioenergy?
  2. How do particular policies and incentives rank in terms of their effectiveness?
  3. What supply-chain bottlenecks slow the growth of high-blend ethanol consumption?
  4. How do tipping-point dynamics affect the dominance of particular bioenergy pathways?
  5. What opportunities exist for coordinating incentives and policies across the supply chain?
  6. How naturally inclined is the bioenergy supply chain to develop toward meeting targets such as the Renewable Fuel Standard Program (RFS2) volume requirements and percentage standards?
  7. How does the achievement of U.S. Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) targets through R&D efforts affect the overall success of bioenergy?
  8. How substantially do BETO demonstration and market transformation investments foster the growth of particular biomass-to-bioenergy conversion pathways?
  9. What might happen if the RSF2 or its implementation is changed significantly?


Selected Policy Inputs to the BSM

Using the BSM

The public version of the BSM may be downloaded from the BSM-public GitHub site, which contains additional user guidance.

References

  1. Biomass Scenario Model
  2. Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office

External Links