Difference between revisions of "Solar+Storage/Method and Modeling Assumptions"

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<h1>Methods and Modeling Assumptions</h1>
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<div class="col-xs-12">__TOC__</div>
<h2 style="text-align: center;">Methods and Modeling Assumptions</h2>
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<h3>Scenarios Modeled</h3>
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<p>More than 24,000 scenarios were modeled to identify cost-optimal solar and/or battery storage system configurations for 73 commercial electricity rates for the utilities with the largest number of customers in each climate zone. </p>
[[File:NREL-logo.jpg|200px|link=https://www.nrel.gov/|NREL]]
 
</div>
 
 
</div>
 
</div>
 
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<div class="spsImage col-xs-12 col-sm-10 col-sm-offset-1">[[File:ScenariosModeled.jpg|alt=Table of Scenarios Modeled]]</div>{{clear}}
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<br /><hr /><br />
 
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<div class="col-xs-12">
<hr>
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<h3>Locations Modeled</h3>
 
 
<h4>Locations Modeled</h4>
 
 
 
 
<p>Commercial buildings were modeled for 16 locations, representing every climate zone across the U.S.</p>
 
<p>Commercial buildings were modeled for 16 locations, representing every climate zone across the U.S.</p>
 
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</div>
[[File:LocationMap-Static.jpg|1000px|link=https://openei.org/w/images/4/43/LocationMap-Static.jpg|Locations Modeled]]
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<div class="spsImage col-xs-12 col-sm-10 col-sm-offset-1">[[File:LocationMap-Static.jpg|alt=Map of Locations Modeled]]</div>{{clear}}
 
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<br /><hr /><br />
<hr>
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<div class="col-xs-12">
 
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<h3>Utility Rates Modeled</h3>
<h4>Utility Rates Modeled</h4>
 
 
 
 
<p>Commercial utility rates were selected for the utility with the largest commercial customer base within each climate zone. Rates and building types were matched, based on the load profile of the building and the eligibility requirements stated in the utility’s rate tariff sheet.</p>
 
<p>Commercial utility rates were selected for the utility with the largest commercial customer base within each climate zone. Rates and building types were matched, based on the load profile of the building and the eligibility requirements stated in the utility’s rate tariff sheet.</p>
 
 
<p>The modeling included a variety of tariffs. Some have demand charge elements, some have time-of-use elements, some have both time-of-use and demand elements, and a few were flat rates. All of the tariffs were taken from [http://en.openei.org/wiki/Utility_Rate_Database NREL’s Utility Rate Database] and were up to date as of January 2017.</p>
 
<p>The modeling included a variety of tariffs. Some have demand charge elements, some have time-of-use elements, some have both time-of-use and demand elements, and a few were flat rates. All of the tariffs were taken from [http://en.openei.org/wiki/Utility_Rate_Database NREL’s Utility Rate Database] and were up to date as of January 2017.</p>
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</div>
[[File:Rate-types-modeled-2.jpg|1000px|link=https://openei.org/w/images/e/ee/Rate-types-modeled-2.jpeg|Utility Rates Modeled]]
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<div class="spsImage col-xs-12 col-sm-10 col-sm-offset-1">[[File:Rate-types-modeled-2.jpeg|alt=Table of Utility Rates Modeled]]</div>{{clear}}
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<!--<div class="tableauPlaceholder col-xs-12" id="methodRates" style="width:100%; height:auto;"></div>-->
  
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1495825069608" style="position: relative;"></div>
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<br /><hr /><br />
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<div class="col-xs-12">
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<h3>Buildings and Load Profiles</h3>
 +
<p>Hourly load profiles from the DOE Commercial reference buildings were used to model 16 building types. </p>
 +
</div>
 +
<div class="spsImage col-xs-12 col-sm-10 col-sm-offset-1">[[File:Buildings-Loads.png|alt=Buildings-Loads]]</div>{{clear}}
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<!--<div class="tableauPlaceholder col-xs-12" id="Buildings-Loads" style="width:100%; height:auto;"></div>-->
  
<hr>
 
  
<h4>Building Types and Load Profiles Modeled</h4>
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<br /><hr /><br />
 
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<div class="col-xs-12">
<p>Hourly load profiles were generated for the 16 Department of Energy Commercial Reference Buildings (1980’s stock). Different profiles were created for each ASHRAE climate zone (see map below). These annual, hourly load profiles were used as inputs into the optimization model. You can explore the load profiles using the interactive chart, below.</p>
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<h3>Climate Zones</h3>
 
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<p>Hourly load profiles for the reference buildings were adjusted for each of the ASHRAE climate zones.</p>
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1495223422516" style="position: relative;"></div>
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</div>
 
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<div class="spsImage col-xs-12 col-sm-10 col-sm-offset-1">[[File:Ashrae-climate-zones-B.jpg|alt=ASHRAE climate zone map]]<p style="text-align: center;">''([https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/publications/pdfs/building_america/4_3a_ba_innov_buildingscienceclimatemaps_011713.pdf Read more about this map here])''</p></div>{{clear}}
[[File:Ashrae-climate-zones-B.jpg|1000px|link=https://openei.org/w/images/f/f1/Ashrae-climate-zones-B.jpg|Building Types and Load Profiles Modeled]]
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<!--<div class="tableauPlaceholder col-xs-12" id="methodBuildings" style="width:100%; height:auto;"></div>-->
 
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<p style="text-align: center;">''([https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/publications/pdfs/building_america/4_3a_ba_innov_buildingscienceclimatemaps_011713.pdf Read more about this map here])''</p>
 
 
 
<hr>
 
  
<h4>Technology Cost Assumptions</h4>
 
  
 +
<br /><hr /><br />
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<div class="col-xs-12">
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<h3>Technology Cost Assumptions</h3>
 
<p>Optimization modeling was conducted for seven solar photovoltaic and battery storage price points, representing anticipated cost trajectories.</p>
 
<p>Optimization modeling was conducted for seven solar photovoltaic and battery storage price points, representing anticipated cost trajectories.</p>
 
 
<p>Cost Point A represents conservative technology costs in the current market. Some stakeholders are reporting current costs closer to Cost Points B and C.</p>
 
<p>Cost Point A represents conservative technology costs in the current market. Some stakeholders are reporting current costs closer to Cost Points B and C.</p>
 
 
<p>Cost Point G represents estimated technology costs by 2037.</p>
 
<p>Cost Point G represents estimated technology costs by 2037.</p>
 
 
<p>The solar technology cost trajectory is based on [http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/66944.pdf NREL’s Annual Technology Baseline]. Battery storage costs are based on NREL discussions with a variety of battery suppliers and developers.</p>
 
<p>The solar technology cost trajectory is based on [http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/66944.pdf NREL’s Annual Technology Baseline]. Battery storage costs are based on NREL discussions with a variety of battery suppliers and developers.</p>
 
 
[[File:Method-Cost-Static.jpg|1000px|link=https://openei.org/w/images/9/98/Method-Cost-Static.jpg|Solar and Battery Storage Cost Assumptions used for Optimization Modeling]]
 
 
<div class="col-sm-12">
 
 
<h3> Components included in the Cost Assumptions </h3>
 
 
<div class="col-sm-6">
 
 
<table class="table table-hover">
 
<tr><th>Battery &amp; Hardware Costs</th></tr>
 
<tr><td>Battery</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Inverter - power conversion</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Container or housing</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Container extras (insulation/walls)</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Electrical conduit (inside of container)</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Communication device</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>HVAC</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Meter (revenue grade)</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Fire detection</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Fire suppression</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Labor</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>AC main panel</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>DC disconnect</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Isolation transformer</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>AUX power - lighting etc.</td></tr>
 
</table>
 
 
</div>
 
 
<div class="col-sm-6">
 
 
<table class="table table-hover">
 
<tr><th>Soft Costs</th></tr>
 
<tr><td>Developer cost (customer acquisition)</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Interconnection</td></tr>
 
</table>
 
 
 
<table class="table table-hover">
 
<tr><th>Engineering, Planning &amp; Construction Costs</th></tr>
 
<tr><td>Control system/SCADA</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Site preparation</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Loading &amp; drive from OEM site</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Lifting &amp; hoisting by crane on site</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>PE stamped calcs &amp; drawings</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>OEM testing and commissioning </td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Electrical BOS outside of container (conduit, wiring, DC cable)</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Electrical labor</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Structural BOS (fencing)</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>EPC overhead &amp; profit</td></tr>
 
</table>
 
 
</div>
 
 
</div>
 
 
<hr>
 
 
<div class="col-sm-12">
 
 
<div class="col-sm-6">
 
 
<h3> Policy &amp; Financing Assumptions </h3>
 
 
<table class="table table-hover">
 
<tr><th colspan="2">Unless otherwise noted:</th></tr>
 
<tr><td>System life</td><td>20 years.</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Inflation Rate</td><td>2.5%</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Discount Rate</td><td>10.2%</td></tr>
 
<tr><td colspan="2">Net metering is not included. When included, system size is capped at 100% load.</td></tr>
 
<tr><td colspan="2">30% Investment Tax Credit is included.</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>"Modified Accelerated Capital Depreciation (MACRS):</td><td>5 year + bonus depreciation for solar and battery system components (if battery charged >25% from grid, 7 year depreciation).</td></tr>
 
<tr><td colspan="2">No other state or federal incentives are included.</td></tr>
 
</table>
 
 
</div>
 
 
<div class="col-sm-6">
 
 
<h3> Hardware Assumptions </h3>
 
 
<table class="table table-hover">
 
<tr><th>Inverter &amp; Storage Replacement</th><th>In Year 10</th></tr>
 
<tr><td>Total Round Trip Efficiency</td><td>82.9%</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Battery Throughput</td><td>85%</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Inverter Efficiency</td><td>92%</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Rectifier Efficiency</td><td>90%</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Minimum Charge</td><td>20%</td></tr>
 
<tr><td>Initial State of Charge</td><td>50%</td></tr>
 
</table>
 
 
</div>
 
 
</div>
 
 
<hr>
 
 
<h4>The REopt Model</h4>
 
 
<p>The Renewable Energy Optimization Model (REopt) provides cost-optimal technology solutions at a single site, or across a portfolio of sites.</p>
 
 
<p>REopt is a mixed integer linear program that outputs optimal technology sizing and hourly dispatch strategies, along with financial data.</p>
 
 
<p>REopt can identify optimal system sizes, given other parameters, or can output financial data for set system sizes. Multiple on-site technologies, including existing diesel generators, can be considered in the optimization.</p>
 
 
<p>The REopt model is currently run by NREL analysts, in-house. A web-based version of the tool is currently in development, and expected to be released as a beta-version in September 2017.</p>
 
 
<p>For more information about REopt, visit: [https://reopt.nrel.gov/ https://reopt.nrel.gov/]</p>
 
 
 
</div>
 
</div>
 
+
<div class="spsImage col-xs-12 col-sm-10 col-sm-offset-1">[[File:Cost Assumptions-Detailed.png|Solar and Battery Storage Cost Assumptions used for Optimization Modeling]]</div>{{clear}}
 +
<h3>Components included in the Cost Assumptions</h3>
 +
<div class="col-xs-12 col-sm-4">
 +
<table class="table table-hover">
 +
<tr><th>Battery &amp; Hardware Costs</th></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Battery</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Inverter - power conversion</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Container or housing</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Container extras (insulation/walls)</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Electrical conduit (inside of container)</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Communication device</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>HVAC</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Meter (revenue grade)</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Fire detection</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Fire suppression</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Labor</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>AC main panel</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>DC disconnect</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Isolation transformer</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>AUX power - lighting etc.</td></tr>
 +
</table>
 +
</div>
 +
<div class="col-xs-12 col-sm-4">
 +
<table class="table table-hover">
 +
                        <tr><th>Engineering, Planning &amp; Construction Costs</th></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Control system/SCADA</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Site preparation</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Loading &amp; drive from OEM site</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Lifting &amp; hoisting by crane on site</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>PE stamped calcs &amp; drawings</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>OEM testing and commissioning </td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Electrical BOS outside of container (conduit, wiring, DC cable)</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Electrical labor</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Structural BOS (fencing)</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>EPC overhead &amp; profit</td></tr>
 +
        </table>
 +
        </div>
 +
<div class="col-xs-12 col-sm-4">
 +
<table class="table table-hover">
 +
<tr><th>Soft Costs</th></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Developer cost (customer acquisition)</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Interconnection</td></tr>
 +
</table>
 +
</div>
 +
{{clear}}
 +
<h3>Policy & Financing Assumptions</h3>
 +
<div class="col-xs-12">
 +
<table class="table table-hover">
 +
<tr><th colspan="2">Unless otherwise noted:</th></tr>
 +
<tr><td>System life</td><td>20 years.</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Inflation Rate</td><td>2.5%</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Discount Rate</td><td>10.2%</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td colspan="2">Net metering is not included. When included, system size is capped at 100% load.</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td colspan="2">30% Investment Tax Credit is included.</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>"Modified Accelerated Capital Depreciation (MACRS):</td><td>5 year + bonus depreciation for solar and battery system components (if battery charged >25% from grid, 7 year depreciation).</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td colspan="2">No other state or federal incentives are included.</td></tr>
 +
</table>
 +
</div>
 +
{{clear}}
 +
<h3>Hardware Assumptions</h3>
 +
<div class="col-xs-12">
 +
<table class="table table-hover">
 +
<tr><th>Inverter &amp; Storage Replacement</th><th>In Year 10</th></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Total Round Trip Efficiency</td><td>82.9%</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Battery Throughput</td><td>85%</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Inverter Efficiency</td><td>92%</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Rectifier Efficiency</td><td>90%</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Minimum Charge</td><td>20%</td></tr>
 +
<tr><td>Initial State of Charge</td><td>50%</td></tr>
 +
</table>
 +
</div>
 +
{{clear}}
 +
<h3>The REopt Model</h3>
 +
<p>The Renewable Energy Optimization Model (REopt) provides cost-optimal technology solutions at a single site, or across a portfolio of sites.</p>
 +
<p>REopt is a mixed integer linear program that outputs optimal technology sizing and hourly dispatch strategies, along with financial data.</p>
 +
<p>REopt can identify optimal system sizes, given other parameters, or can output financial data for set system sizes. Multiple on-site technologies, including existing diesel generators, can be considered in the optimization.</p>
 +
<p>The REopt model is currently run by NREL analysts, in-house. A web-based version of the tool is currently in development, and expected to be released as a beta-version in September 2017.</p>
 +
<p>For more information about REopt, visit: [https://reopt.nrel.gov/ https://reopt.nrel.gov/]</p>
 +
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<div class="pageNav pageNav-next">[[Solar+Storage/Publications & Resources|Publications & Resources]]</div>
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Latest revision as of 18:08, 9 February 2018

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Methods and Modeling Assumptions

Scenarios Modeled

More than 24,000 scenarios were modeled to identify cost-optimal solar and/or battery storage system configurations for 73 commercial electricity rates for the utilities with the largest number of customers in each climate zone.

Table of Scenarios Modeled



Locations Modeled

Commercial buildings were modeled for 16 locations, representing every climate zone across the U.S.

Map of Locations Modeled



Utility Rates Modeled

Commercial utility rates were selected for the utility with the largest commercial customer base within each climate zone. Rates and building types were matched, based on the load profile of the building and the eligibility requirements stated in the utility’s rate tariff sheet.

The modeling included a variety of tariffs. Some have demand charge elements, some have time-of-use elements, some have both time-of-use and demand elements, and a few were flat rates. All of the tariffs were taken from NREL’s Utility Rate Database and were up to date as of January 2017.

Table of Utility Rates Modeled



Buildings and Load Profiles

Hourly load profiles from the DOE Commercial reference buildings were used to model 16 building types.

Buildings-Loads





Climate Zones

Hourly load profiles for the reference buildings were adjusted for each of the ASHRAE climate zones.





Technology Cost Assumptions

Optimization modeling was conducted for seven solar photovoltaic and battery storage price points, representing anticipated cost trajectories.

Cost Point A represents conservative technology costs in the current market. Some stakeholders are reporting current costs closer to Cost Points B and C.

Cost Point G represents estimated technology costs by 2037.

The solar technology cost trajectory is based on NREL’s Annual Technology Baseline. Battery storage costs are based on NREL discussions with a variety of battery suppliers and developers.

Solar and Battery Storage Cost Assumptions used for Optimization Modeling

Components included in the Cost Assumptions

Battery & Hardware Costs
Battery
Inverter - power conversion
Container or housing
Container extras (insulation/walls)
Electrical conduit (inside of container)
Communication device
HVAC
Meter (revenue grade)
Fire detection
Fire suppression
Labor
AC main panel
DC disconnect
Isolation transformer
AUX power - lighting etc.
Engineering, Planning & Construction Costs
Control system/SCADA
Site preparation
Loading & drive from OEM site
Lifting & hoisting by crane on site
PE stamped calcs & drawings
OEM testing and commissioning
Electrical BOS outside of container (conduit, wiring, DC cable)
Electrical labor
Structural BOS (fencing)
EPC overhead & profit
Soft Costs
Developer cost (customer acquisition)
Interconnection

Policy & Financing Assumptions

Unless otherwise noted:
System life20 years.
Inflation Rate2.5%
Discount Rate10.2%
Net metering is not included. When included, system size is capped at 100% load.
30% Investment Tax Credit is included.
"Modified Accelerated Capital Depreciation (MACRS):5 year + bonus depreciation for solar and battery system components (if battery charged >25% from grid, 7 year depreciation).
No other state or federal incentives are included.

Hardware Assumptions

Inverter & Storage ReplacementIn Year 10
Total Round Trip Efficiency82.9%
Battery Throughput85%
Inverter Efficiency92%
Rectifier Efficiency90%
Minimum Charge20%
Initial State of Charge50%

The REopt Model

The Renewable Energy Optimization Model (REopt) provides cost-optimal technology solutions at a single site, or across a portfolio of sites.

REopt is a mixed integer linear program that outputs optimal technology sizing and hourly dispatch strategies, along with financial data.

REopt can identify optimal system sizes, given other parameters, or can output financial data for set system sizes. Multiple on-site technologies, including existing diesel generators, can be considered in the optimization.

The REopt model is currently run by NREL analysts, in-house. A web-based version of the tool is currently in development, and expected to be released as a beta-version in September 2017.

For more information about REopt, visit: https://reopt.nrel.gov/

Contacts


Joyce Mclaren (bio)
Senior Energy Analyst
National Renewable Energy Laboratory

303-384-7362
Todd Olinsky-Paul
Project Director
Clean Energy Group

802-223-2554