Difference between revisions of "Biomass Scenario Model"

From Open Energy Information

(Edited Intro paragraph; updated References; replaced body content with content from BSM Fact Sheet (NREL/FS-6A20-64956); updated External Links.)
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{{Tool
 
{{Tool
 
|Name=Biomass Scenario Model (BSM)
 
|Name=Biomass Scenario Model (BSM)
|Abstract=The National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed system dynamics model, the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM), represents the primary system effects and dependencies in the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain and provides a framework for developing scenarios and conducting biofuels policy analysis.
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|Abstract=The National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed system dynamics model, the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM), represents the primary system effects and dependencies in the biomass-to-bioenergy supply chain and provides a framework for developing scenarios and conducting bioenergy policy analysis.
 
|Logo=Nrel full.jpg
 
|Logo=Nrel full.jpg
 
|Developer=National Renewable Energy Laboratory
 
|Developer=National Renewable Energy Laboratory
 
|OpenEI/Tool/CostRange=Free
 
|OpenEI/Tool/CostRange=Free
|Partner=Department of Energy (DOE) Office of the Biomass Program
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|Partner=Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office
 
|ProgramSector=Energy
 
|ProgramSector=Energy
 
|Sector=Biomass
 
|Sector=Biomass
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|OpenEI/Tool/Keyword=EERE tool, Biomass Scenario Model
 
|OpenEI/Tool/Keyword=EERE tool, Biomass Scenario Model
 
|Coordinates=39.7408399, -105.1685277
 
|Coordinates=39.7408399, -105.1685277
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|References=Biomass Scenario Model <ref name="model">[http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/bsm/ Biomass Scenario Model]</ref>
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|References=An Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model <ref name="overview">S. Peterson, E. Newes, D. Inman, L. Vimmerstedt, D. Hsu, C. Peck, D. Stright, and B. Bush. [http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2013/proceed/papers/P1352.pdf An Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model], presented at the ''The 31st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society'', Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2013.</ref>
 
<br />
 
Using System Dynamics to Model the Transition to Biofuels in the U.S. <ref name="transition">B. Bush, M. Duffy, D. Sandor, S. Peterson. [http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy08osti/43153.pdf Using System Dynamics to Model the Transition to Biofuels in the United States].  National Renewable Energy Laboratory, NREL/CP-150-43153.  June 2008.</ref>
 
  
Understanding the Growth of the Cellulosic Ethanol Industry <ref name="growth">D. Sandor, R. Wallace, and S. Peterson. [http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy08osti/42120.pdf Understanding the growth of the cellulosic ethanol industry].  National Renewable Energy Laboratory, NREL/TP-150-42120.  April 2008.</ref>
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Biomass Program <ref name="biomass">[https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/bioenergy-technologies-office Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office]</ref>
 
 
Biomass Scenario Model <ref name="model">[http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/bsm/ Biomass Scenario Model]</ref>
 
 
 
Biomass Program <ref name="biomass">[http://www1.eere.energy.gov/biomass/ Department of Energy (DOE) Office of the Biomass Program]</ref>
 
 
 
Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 <ref name="securityact">[http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=110_cong_bills&docid=f:h6enr.txt.pdf Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007]</ref>
 
 
|CLEANMember=Yes
 
|CLEANMember=Yes
 
}}
 
}}
Under the [[National Renewable Fuel Standard|renewable fuel standard]] provisions of the [[Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007]], U.S. policy [[Renewable Fuel Standard Schedule|targets 36 billion gallons per year of biofuels utilization by 2022]].  Achieving such large scale biofuels adoption may require the substantial development of new infrastructure, markets, and related systems. The [[National Renewable Energy Laboratory]] has developed a system dynamics model, the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM), to represent the primary system effects and dependencies in the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain and to provide a framework for developing scenarios and conducting biofuels policy analysis.  This approach was designed to inform analysis and discussion by determining which supply chain changes would have the greatest potential to accelerate the deployment of biofuels.  The model currently attempts to integrate all aspects of the cellulosic biofuels supply chain, from growing the feedstock through harvest, collection, transport, conversion, distribution of fuel, and, finally, consumption of the fuel in available, applicable vehicles.
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The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain that explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and their potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain: the BSM tracks the deployment of biofuels given technological development and the reaction of the investment community to those technologies in the context of land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand for biofuels, and government policies over time. It has a strong emphasis on the behavior and decision making of various agents and resolves 10 geographic regions domestically. The BSM is currently used to develop insights into the biofuels industry growth and market penetration, particularly with respect to policies and incentives (volumetric, capital, operating subsidies; carbon caps/taxes; R&D investment; loan guarantees; tax credits) applicable to each supply-chain element. It is suitable for coupling to vehicle-choice, agricultural, oil-industry, and general economic models.
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Questions the BSM Can Help Answer</strong>
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# What points of leverage exist for accelerating the adoption of biofuels?
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# How do particular policies and incentives rank in terms of their effectiveness?
 +
# What supply-chain bottlenecks slow the growth of high-blend ethanol consumption?
 +
# How do tipping-point dynamics affect the dominance of particular biofuels pathways?
 +
# What opportunities exist for coordinating incentives and policies across the supply chain?
 +
# How naturally inclined is the biofuels supply chain to develop toward meeting targets such as the Renewable Fuel Standard Program (RFS2) volume requirements and percentage standards?
 +
# How does the achievement of U.S. Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) targets through R&D efforts affect the overall success of biofuels?
 +
# How substantially do BETO demonstration and market transformation investments foster the growth of particular biomass-to-biofuel conversion pathways?
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# What might happen if the RSF2 or its implementation is changed significantly?
  
 
==References==
 
==References==
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==External Links==
 
==External Links==
 
* [http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/bsm/ Biomass Scenario Model]
 
* [http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/bsm/ Biomass Scenario Model]
* [http://www1.eere.energy.gov/biomass/ Department of Energy (DOE) Office of the Biomass Program]
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* [https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/bioenergy-technologies-office Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office]
* [http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=110_cong_bills&docid=f:h6enr.txt.pdf Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007]
 
 
* [https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/items Zotero]
 
* [https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/items Zotero]
  
 
[[Category:Biomass]]
 
[[Category:Biomass]]
 
[[Category:EERE Analysis Tools]]
 
[[Category:EERE Analysis Tools]]

Revision as of 09:03, 19 April 2017

Logo: Biomass Scenario Model (BSM)
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed system dynamics model, the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM), represents the primary system effects and dependencies in the biomass-to-bioenergy supply chain and provides a framework for developing scenarios and conducting bioenergy policy analysis.



The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain that explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and their potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain: the BSM tracks the deployment of biofuels given technological development and the reaction of the investment community to those technologies in the context of land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand for biofuels, and government policies over time. It has a strong emphasis on the behavior and decision making of various agents and resolves 10 geographic regions domestically. The BSM is currently used to develop insights into the biofuels industry growth and market penetration, particularly with respect to policies and incentives (volumetric, capital, operating subsidies; carbon caps/taxes; R&D investment; loan guarantees; tax credits) applicable to each supply-chain element. It is suitable for coupling to vehicle-choice, agricultural, oil-industry, and general economic models.

Questions the BSM Can Help Answer</strong>

  1. What points of leverage exist for accelerating the adoption of biofuels?
  2. How do particular policies and incentives rank in terms of their effectiveness?
  3. What supply-chain bottlenecks slow the growth of high-blend ethanol consumption?
  4. How do tipping-point dynamics affect the dominance of particular biofuels pathways?
  5. What opportunities exist for coordinating incentives and policies across the supply chain?
  6. How naturally inclined is the biofuels supply chain to develop toward meeting targets such as the Renewable Fuel Standard Program (RFS2) volume requirements and percentage standards?
  7. How does the achievement of U.S. Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) targets through R&D efforts affect the overall success of biofuels?
  8. How substantially do BETO demonstration and market transformation investments foster the growth of particular biomass-to-biofuel conversion pathways?
  9. What might happen if the RSF2 or its implementation is changed significantly?

References

  1. Biomass Scenario Model
  2. Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office

External Links